Set the alarm one more time. After a month of tournament football, the World Cup comes down to one game — 5:00am AEST Monday 21 July at MetLife Stadium, live and free on SBS and SBS On Demand. Spain v Argentina: the tournament’s most ruthless side and reigning European champions against Lionel Messi’s Argentina, in what’s almost certainly Messi’s last match on the big stage. Spain are favourites (title price 1.63–1.72), Argentina chase (2.25–2.40). Here’s the full read for the Aussie punter. As of 19 July 2026.

Best defence v the eternal Messi

Spain haven’t just won; they’ve shut games down — Group H perfect, Belgium 2–1, France 2–0 in the semi. Best defence in the tournament, reigning Euro champs, with Lamine Yamal the difference off the flank. Yamal and Porro are both fit to start. Argentina run through Messi: 8 goals, 4 assists, still a strong Golden Ball favourite (1.11) even after losing the all-time goals record on Saturday. Both coaches say these teams are near-identical stylistically. Coffee on, blanket ready — this is a patience game, not a shoot-out.

Three records on the line

Argentina can go back-to-back (first since 1962). Spain can complete a Euro/World Cup double and reach 38 unbeaten. Messi has a final shot at the all-time goals record. Head-to-head is level (6-6-2) and it’s their first-ever World Cup knockout meeting.

The verdict

Spain are the sound favourite at 1.63–1.72, but the bare "1" offers little value. With two sides this alike, I’d lean Under 2.5 goals and keep an eye on the draw in normal time — finals break late or go to extra time. Prices in AUD with our partners: BetiBet, ZotaBet, Boomerang Bet.com, WinRolla, BillyBets, MrPacho.

Read next

• Sunday morning — England beat France 6-4 in a third-place classic
• Mbappé takes the goals record and Golden Boot lead
• Messi’s last World Cup final and the Golden Ball

Decimal odds from Kalshi and FanDuel via FOX, as of 19 July 2026 ET; treat as ranges. Sources: FIFA, Wikipedia. Gamble responsibly. 18+. Editorial — not financial advice.