The Socceroos are home, the doona’s back on the bed, and the alarm can finally sleep past 4am — but the tournament is only getting better. Eight teams left, four ties, and from a Sydney or Perth chair it’s three straight mornings of knockout football between Friday and Sunday. France start the quarter-finals as the clear title favourites, Argentina have come roaring back off Lionel Messi’s boot, and there are two genuine coin-flip prices in the last eight if you know where to look. Here’s the full card, AEST-converted, with the decimal odds, the storylines and where I’d actually have a punt.

Now that the Green and Gold have bowed out in the Round of 32, this is neutral-punter territory — which, if anything, makes the value hunt cleaner. No heart, all head.

The full quarter-final card — AEST-converted

The bracket has been static since the Round of 16 closed on 7 July, and 8 July was a scheduled rest day. So the four ties are locked and the prices below are effectively opening-to-current lines.

Odds are decimal, 1X2 over 90 minutes, from a major aggregator comparison board as of 8 Jul. Convert as you go: a 1.56 favourite returns $15.60 on a $10 punt, an implied 64%.

How the bracket runs to the final

The pairings for the semis are already fixed by the draw structure, so you can map your whole week now:

• Semi-final 1 — Winner QF1 (France or Morocco) v Winner QF2 (Spain or Belgium) — Tue 14 Jul, 3:00pm ET, Wed 15 Jul 5:00am AEST, AT&T Stadium, Dallas.
• Semi-final 2 — Winner QF3 (Norway or England) v Winner QF4 (Argentina or Switzerland) — Wed 15 Jul, 3:00pm ET, Thu 16 Jul 5:00am AEST, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta.

Both semis are 5:00am AEST starts. If you’re planning a viewing week, that’s the pattern: knockout mornings now, then two dawn semis midweek.

The four ties, ranked by watchability

QF1 France v Morocco — the 2022 rematch nobody in Africa has forgotten

This is the pick of the round for storyline. France beat Morocco 2-0 in the Qatar 2022 semi-final; now the Atlas Lions are back for the rematch — but this time as an unbeaten, hardened contender rather than a fairytale underdog, having gone through the Netherlands on penalties and dismantled hosts Canada 3-0. France are heavy at 1.56–1.59; Morocco a big 6.00–6.90. There’s a full preview of this one, including the Aurélien Tchouaméni fitness cloud and the refereeing row that’s blown up online. It kicks off first — 6:00am AEST Friday.

QF2 Spain v Belgium — the tournament’s meanest defence

Spain have conceded just twice all tournament and kept four straight clean sheets; Belgium needed a 4-1 win over the USA to shake off a run of draws and are without Amadou Onana (ACL). The head-to-head is brutally one-sided — Spain have won six of seven meetings, Belgium none. Spain 1.61, Belgium 5.25, draw 4.00. One market note: the Belgium price has been quoted anywhere from 5.25 out to about 5.80 depending on the book, so it pays to line-shop this one.

QF3 Norway v England — Haaland’s history-makers v a walking wounded England

Norway are at their first World Cup since 1998 and their first-ever quarter-final, dragged there by an Erling Haaland who has seven goals in five, including the brace that knocked out Brazil. England come in with a defensive-injury crisis — Jarrell Quansah suspended, Jordan Henderson out for the tournament with a wrist break, Reece James racing his fitness. England are still favourites at 1.85–1.95; Norway a tempting 3.80. It’s 7:00am AEST Sunday.

QF4 Argentina v Switzerland — Messi’s chase v a 72-year first

Argentina ride the momentum of Messi’s tournament — he’s the Golden Boot leader on eight goals and has scored in every match — against a Switzerland side in their first quarter-final since 1954. Argentina 1.71–1.80, Switzerland 5.25. It’s the late one: 11:00am AEST Sunday, a rare civilised hour for Aussie viewers.

The Punter’s Verdict — where the value sits in the last eight

Three places I’d actually have a look, and one to leave:

1. Norway draw-no-bet around the mid-2.00s on QF3. England’s back line is patched together and Haaland is the single most in-form striker left in the draw. At 3.80 the outright is a swing; draw-no-bet takes the sting out and still rewards a Norwegian upset the market is underrating.
2. Under 2.5 goals in QF2 Spain v Belgium. Spain’s four straight clean sheets and tournament-best two-goals-conceded defence, against a Belgium side missing Onana, points to a controlled, low-scoring tie rather than a shootout.
3. Morocco double chance (draw or win) on QF1. France are rightly favourites but 1.56 is short for a side that laboured to a 1-0 over Paraguay and may be without Tchouaméni. Morocco haven’t lost a match all tournament — backing them to at least take France to extra time is the shaped play.

Where I’d avoid: Argentina -1.5 on the handicap in QF4. Argentina have won, but they’ve conceded in each of their last three and Switzerland have shipped just three goals all tournament with Gregor Kobel in outstanding form. Back the win, not the margin.

Want the deep dives? The France v Morocco quarter-final preview and the Argentina v Switzerland preview go tie-by-tie, and the last-eight title odds plus the Golden Boot race frame the tournament markets. For the standing numbers, the outright winner odds and tournament predictions pages carry the evergreen picture, and the Argentina team guide and France team guide cover the contenders in detail. SBS and SBS On Demand broadcast every knockout match live and free in Australia. BillyBets is among the AUD-facing brands in our pool with the knockout markets priced — confirm the live number, set a deposit limit and treat each morning as its own event. 18+. Gamble responsibly; BetStop is there if you need it.

Decimal odds from a major aggregator comparison board, as of 2026-07-08 ET; treat as ranges and line-shop. Schedule and venues from Yahoo Sports, Al Jazeera and Olympics.com. Editorial — not financial advice.